Recently, I have been thinking about Iran and US relations very much. What will be the consequence of election of Obama? Can we be hopeful that change in White House will bring positive changes in this cursed relationship. In contrast to many {Iranian} people, who had thought election of Obama would bring a major change in US policy toward Iran, I was doubtful about that. Mr Obama’s lectures after presidential inauguration and his cabinet members’, especially Hilary Clinton’s, tough position on Iran are evidence to my argument. However, special political-economical situation of this years make me to be more optimistic!
What make me pessimistic
First of all US foreign policy is not going to change in one night and by one person. Second, even if government wants to change its policies, powerful lobbies against US relation with Iran are not going to be silent. ( the same is true about Iranians opposition lobbies) Finally, when I compare Obama’s Government with Bill Clinton’s, there is not big change in these governments. I remember that during Clinton presidency which was coincident with presidency of Khatami, Major reformist figure in Iran politics, there were many hope that Iran and US can put aside hostility. But noting happens, even it can be argued that after association of Iran with axis of evil by Bush and Iran nuclear program never relationship between two government has been worse.
What made me to be optimistic about future
First, Islamic republic of Iran has proven to be more utilitarian and pragmatic than ever before (and more than most of the people think). It’s worth mentioning that after US attack to Iraq for removing Saddam, Iranian officials proposed a great bargain to US in which they had agreed to help international community to transform Hezbollah to a political organization rather than military and to establish peace between Palestine and Israel. Instead they had asked US government to remove changing government in Iran from its agenda. People who knows Islamic Republic’s policies, know that these two conditions are the red lines of the regime and if they had agreed to negotiate on them, it means that they are going to negotiate on every thing, if they get enough incentives.
My second reason is mostly related to recent economic crisis. I believe the major difference of this time with Clinton presidency regarding Iran-US relations is this extensive financial crisis which has affect ( and will affect) all countries in the world. This financial crisis which is predicted to be more intensive than “great depression” of 1930s has the potential to change the balance of politics in the world ( as it has happened in the aftermaths of 1930s’ crisis). Moreover, US and Iran relationship can best be described by a two pendulums moving in opposite direction, when one is at one end, the other is at the other side. When one is interested to give concessions to make a deal ( because of its fear, problems, etc), the other one expectation is very high; they only can negotiate if a powerful force, keep them both in the middle. Financial crisis has already pressing US and it has resulted in dependence of US economy to Chinese dollar, and challenge of Hegemony of US by other countries, especially China, On the other hand, depreciation of oil prices will put Iran government in a very hard economic situation in this year. Crisis for sure is a painful phenomenon, but sometimes can solve problems that has resisted for years.
Today, I am optimistic! Maybe in recent future, we see Iran-US collaboration on Afghanistan, Iraq, Persian Gulf and Israel-Palestine. Believe me Persia still has lots of surprise to the world!
